Dhawaan, noocyada mustaqbalka madow ee keenay kor u kaca guud, oo ay ku jiraan qiimaha mustaqbalka birta ayaa ah mid taagan.Feebarwari 20 maalin dhow, qandaraaska macdanta birta ee ugu weyn 917 yuan/ton, maalin kor u kac 3.21%.
Waxaa la fahamsan yahay in tan iyo Febraayo 14, qiimaha mustaqbalka birta ee 835 yuan / ton uu kor u kacay oo uu jebiyey calaamadda 900 yuan, 6 maalmood oo ganacsi ah in ka badan 8%, oo ah mid cusub oo ka badan 9 bilood.
Qiu Yihong, oo ah falanqeeye ka tirsan Haitong Futures, ayaa u sheegay China Times: “Iron ore waxa uu ahaa kii ugu caansanaa ee soo bandhigay isu soo baxa badhtamihii February, waxana uu ahaa midka kaliya ee qaybta madowga ah ee gaadhay heer cusub January 30. Sababta wareeggan mustaqbalka si uu u gaaro heer cusub ma aha oo kaliya kor u kaca baahida soo kabashada ee asalka kobaca macro xasilloon, laakiin sidoo kale waxay la xiriirtaa kor u kaca qiimaha mustaqbalka birta ee dibadda."
Febraayo 21 15 saac, qandaraaska ugu weyn ee macdanta birta ayaa lagu xirayaa 919 yuan/ton.Falanqeeyaha mustaqbalka ee China Steel Futures Zhao Yi wuxuu aaminsan yahay in hadda uu galay xilliga been-abuurka ah ee dalabka, kaas oo socon kara ilaa bartamaha iyo dhammaadka Abriil, haddii dalabku uu buuxin karo filashooyinka, ama xitaa ka badan yahay filashooyinka, weli lama garanayo.
Mashiinnada birta ayaa ku socda heerar sare
HSBC waxay sare u qaaday saadaasha wax soo saarka guud ee Shiinaha sanadkan 5.6 boqolkiiba 5 boqolkiiba, Hong Kong Economic Times ayaa werisay Feb. 17. soo kabasho.Kii ugu xumaa ee masiibada ah way dhammaatay mana noqon doonto mid soo jiidata waxqabadka dhaqaalaha rubuci hore, halka isticmaalka iyo kaydinta xad-dhaafka ah ay bixin karaan kor u kac dheeri ah si loo dardargeliyo soo kabashada iyo in dhaqaaluhu uu ku socdo wadada, ayaa lagu yidhi warbixinta HSBC.
Dhanka kale, Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho 5.7 boqolkiiba sanadkan, taasoo ka dhigaysa mashiinka ugu muhiimsan ee kobaca caalamiga ah, sida laga soo xigtay KPMG.Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka, wax soo saarka Shiinaha ee PMI ee Janaayo 2023 wuxuu ahaa 50.1%, ilaa 3.1 dhibcood laga soo bilaabo Disembar 2022. Xogta xafiiska, dhaqaaluhu aad buu u soo kabanayaa.
"Maqliyada ugu weyn ee saameeya nidaamka madow ee mustaqbalka dhow waa bilowga baahida hoose.Sida lagu sheegay cilmi-baadhis ay samaysay hay’ad saddexaad, laga soo bilaabo 14-kii February, 2023-kii, shirkadaha dhismaha ee qaranku waxa ay bilaabeen in ay dib u bilaabaan shaqadoodii oo ahayd 76.5%, bishiiba bil kasta waxa ay korodhay boqolkiiba 38.1”.Falanqeeyaha mustaqbalka ee China Steel Zhao Yi ayaa u sheegay wariyaha Chinese Times.
Sida laga soo xigtay xogta, laga bilaabo Febraayo 10 ilaa 17 Febraayo, heerka shaqada ee 247 birta ee dalka wuxuu ahaa 79.54%, korodhay 1.12% usbuuca iyo 9.96% sanadka.Heerka ka faa'iidaysiga awoodda foornada qaraxa ka samaysan ee birta waxay ahayd 85.75%, taasoo kordhay 0.82% marka la barbar dhigo bishii hore iyo 10.31% marka la barbar dhigo sannadkii hore.Heerka faa'iidada warshadda birta ayaa ahayd 35.93%, hoos 2.60% bishii hore iyo 45.02% sanadkii hore.Celcelis ahaan wax soo saarka maalinlaha ah ee birta dhalaalaysa waxay ahayd 2,308,100 ton, korodhka 21,500 ton rubuc-rubuc iyo 278,800 tan sanadkiiba.Celcelis ahaan wax soo saarka birta dhalaalaysa ee maalinlaha ah ayaa soo kabsaday lix toddobaad oo isku xigta, ilaa 4.54% tan iyo bilowgii sanadka.Mugga wax kala iibsiga qalabka dhismaha qaranka ayaa sidoo kale laga soo kabsaday 96,900 tan bishii Febraayo 10 ilaa 20,100 tan bishii Febraayo 20keedii.
Sida laga soo xigtay Zhao Yi, laga soo xigtay xogta kor ku xusan, marka la barbar dhigo labadii toddobaad ee ugu horeysay ka dib Festival Festival, heerka dib u soo celinta ganacsiga ee ganacsiyada hoose ka dib Festival Lantern ee maalinta 15 ee bisha koowaad ee bisha si weyn u kordhay.Baahidu waxay bilowday inay kor u qaaddo qaybta madow, sidoo kale waxay keentay qiimaha mustaqbalka birta birta oo gaadhay heerkii ugu sarreeyay.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qaar ka mid ah dadka u dhuun daloola ayaa sheegay in inkasta oo qiimaha qandaraaska ugu weyn ee mustaqbalka birta uu sii kordhayo sanadkan, haddana waxqabadka guud ee qiimihiisu iyo korodhka ayaa weli ka daciifsan marka loo eego Platts index, SGX iyo qiimaha dekedda, taas oo muujinaysa in waxqabadka qiimaha. ee suuqa mustaqbalka ee Shiinaha ayaa weli deggan marka la barbar dhigo qiimaha dibadda.Isla mar ahaantaana, mustaqbalka macdanta birta ee gudaha waxay qaataan nidaamka bixinta jirka, iyo tallaabooyinka xakamaynta khatarta sharciyeynta ayaa ah mid adag.Suuqa ayaa si habsami leh oo habsami leh u socda.Inta badan, qiimaha mustaqbalka iyo korodhka ayaa ka hooseeya tusmada Platts iyo derivatives dibadda.
Biraha birta ah ee cirka isku shareeray, Sarrifka Dalian ayaa dhawaan soo saaray digniinta khatarta suuqa: dhawaan, saamaynta hawlgalka suuqa ee arrimo badan oo aan la hubin, macdanta birta iyo noocyada kale ee isbeddelka qiimaha;Dhammaan qaybaha suuqa waxaa lagu martiqaaday inay si macquul ah oo waafaqsan u hoggaansamaan, ka hortagaan oo ay xakameeyaan khataraha, oo ay hubiyaan habsami u socodka suuqa.Sarrifku wuxuu sii wadi doonaa xoojinta kormeerka maalinlaha ah, si dhab ah u baaro loona ciqaabo dhammaan noocyada xadgudubyada, iyo ilaalinta nidaamka suuqa.
Kor u kaca ku yimi qiimaha macdanta birta, ma laga yaabaa in xad-dhaaf xad-dhaaf ah oo alaabada macdanta birta ah ee dekedaha?Waa sidee xaaladda shixnadaha macdanta birta ah ee dekedaha?Isaga oo ka jawaabaya, Qiu Yihong wuxuu u sheegay Shiinaha Times in alaabada macdanta birta ah ee Dekedda 45 ay kor u kacday 141,107,200 tan dhamaadkii usbuucii hore, korodhka 1,004,400 tan toddobaad kasta iyo hoos u dhac 19,233,300 tan sanad kasta. sanad.Tirada maalmaha dekedda hoosteeda ayaa sii waday inay daciifto, waxay hoos u dhacday heerka ugu hooseeya isla muddadaas.Marka la eego noocyada macdanta, kaydka macdanta ganaaxa ayaa asal ahaan ka hooseeya heerka celceliska isla muddadaas.Toddobaadkii hore, kaydka buro-baxa iyo macdanta pellet-ka ayaa kor u kacay si cad.Kaydka buro buro ah iyo macdanta pellet waxay ahaayeen heerkii ugu sarreeyay isla muddadaas, kaydka budada xoogga leh ee birta waxay ahayd mid deggan heerkii ugu sarreeyay ee isla muddadaas.
"Marka laga eego dhinaca isha, korodhka ugu weyn ee usbuucii hore waxaa ka qaybqaatay Australia iyo Brazil, ilaa hadda sanadkan isbeddelka ugu cadcad ee kor u kaca, laakiin weli waxaa jira farqi weyn marka la barbardhigo sannadkii hore, usbuucii hore Australia iyo Brazil miinooyinka. wax qabadka aasaasiga ah ee alaabada, macdanta Australiya waxay weli ku jirtaa heerka hoose ee isla muddadaas, cadaadiska alaabada waa mid khafiif ah, tayada sare ee macdanta Brazil ayaa weli deggan heerka sare ee isla muddadaas, laakiin sidoo kale aad uga hooseeya isla muddadaas. sanadkii la soo dhaafay."Qiu Yihong ayaa yidhi.
Wuxuu galay xilligii been-abuurka dalabka
Maxaa xigi doona qiimaha macdanta birta?"Marka loo eego aragtidayada, waxaa jira laba arrimood oo waaweyn oo saameyn doona qiimaha birta mustaqbalka," Qiu Yihong ayaa u sheegay Shiinaha Times."Mid waa soo kabashada baahida, midda kalena waa nidaaminta siyaasadda."Baahida macdanta birta ilaa xad aad u badan ayaa wali ku xidhan habaynta faa'iidada.Faa'iidada 247 birta birta ah ayaa kor u kacday shan sano oo toos ah sanadkan, iyagoo ka soo kabanaya boqolkiiba 19.91 ilaa ugu sarreeya 38.53 boqolkiiba, laakiin waxay dib ugu dhacday 35.93 boqolkiiba usbuucii hore.
"Tani marka la barbar dhigo farqiga u dhexeeya sannadihii hore ayaa weli aad u weyn, sidoo kale waxay muujinaysaa in habka soo kabashada faa'iidada birta ay weli ka buuxaan caqabado qodax leh, habka soo kabashada waa ay adag tahay in la gaaro hal habeen, iyo birta laga keeno miinada la heli karo. Maalmo taariikhi ah oo hooseeya, faa'iidada warshadaynta birta waxay had iyo jeer ku dul heehaabaysaa darafkii faa'iidada iyo khasaaraha, tanina waxay weli saamaynaysaa laxanka buuxinta birta, laxanka buuxinta ayaa weli gaabis ah."Qiu Yihong ayaa yidhi.
Xogtu waxay muujinaysaa in 247 bir ee hadda jira ay soo dejiyeen kaydka macdanta birta oo dhan 92.371 milyan oo tan, saamiga kaydinta iyo isticmaalka 32.67 maalmood, halka 64 warshadood birta la keeno celcelis ahaan maalmaha 18 oo keliya, ay ku jiraan muddada taariikheed ee ugu hooseeya, hooseeya. Alaabta alaabta ceeriin ee birta ayaa noqotay kororka ugu weyn ee suurtagalka ah ee baahida macdanta birta ka dib dib u soo celinta wax soo saarka.

Qiu Yihong wuxuu yidhi, laga bilaabo usbuucii hore wax soo saarka birta iyo xogta alaabada sidoo kale waa la xaqiijin karaa.Dhanka kale, dib u soo kabashada guud ee wax soo saarka geeddi-socodka dheer ayaa ah calaamado muuqda oo xannibaad ah, soo-saarka rebar ee geeddi-socodka dheer asal ahaan si weyn uma kordhin, iyo soo kabashada wax-soo-saarka rebar ka dib Festival Spring ayaa asal ahaan ka qaybqaatay dib u soo celinta wax soo saarka. geedi socod gaaban.Dhanka kale, cadaadiska urursan ee biraha birta ayaa ku jira heerka sare, sidaas darteed rabitaanka dib u soo celinta wax soo saarka geeddi-socod dheer ayaa sidoo kale lagu loolami doonaa.Intaa waxaa dheer, qashinka ayaa weli ku jira qiimo dhimis ah qiimaha birta dhalaalaysa, faa'iidada waxqabadka kharashka ee qashinka ayaa sidoo kale noqon doona xad gaar ah oo ku saabsan baahida birta birta, sidaas darteed soo kabashada booska baahida birta ayaa weli la filayaa in ay noqoto. cadaadiska, taas oo sidoo kale ah arrin weyn oo saameynaysa qiimaha mustaqbalka ee birta mustaqbalka.

Xogtu waxa kale oo ay muujisay in todobaadkii Feberaayo 16, 64 ka sinters ee uu tiriyay Mysteel ay heleen 18 maalmood, taas oo aan waxba iska bedelin todobaadkii hore oo hoos u dhacday 13 maalmood sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya."Muddada dhow ama dhexe, saadka iyo baahida macdanta birta labaduba waa kor u kacaya.Dhinaca sahayda, ayaa weli ah shixnadaha miinada ee caadiga ah xilli-xilliyeedka, sahayda hoose ayaa la muujiyay, mustaqbalka ayaa soo qaadi kara.Dhanka baahida, isbeddelka wax-soo-saarka iyo dib-u-soo-celinta shaqada ee ganacsiyada hoose ka dib Bandhiga Gu'ga ayaa ah mid aan isbeddelin.Tijaabada dhabta ah ayaa ah in xaqiiqadu ay buuxin karto waxyaabaha laga filayo iyo in kale.Qiu Yihong ayaa yidhi.

Waxaa xusid mudan in Zhao Yi uu u sheegay China Times in Janaayo uu ahaa xilli daciif ah oo baahida loo qabo, laakiin birta birta ah iyo agabka la dhammeeyay ayaa sii xoogeystay, taas oo ka dambeysa rajooyinka xooggan ka dib fasaxa Festival Festival.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, waxay gashay xilliga been-abuurka dalabka, kaas oo socon kara ilaa badhtamaha illaa dhammaadka Abriil.Ka dib fasaxii fasaxa ka dib ee soo saarista iyo shaqada, weli lama oga in baahida bilaha March iyo April ay buuxin karto ama xitaa ka badan karto rajada.

Ku habboonaanta rajada iyo xaqiiqadu waxay noqon doontaa furaha saameynaya silsiladda warshadaha madow mustaqbalka.Zhao Yi wuxuu yiri, qiimaha birta mustaqbalka ee birta ah waxaa ka mid ah filashooyinka diirran, haddii aad rabto inaad sii waddo isbeddelka kor u kaca, waxaad u baahan tahay soo kabasho dhab ah oo terminal ah si loo xaqiijiyo;Haddii kale, qiimayaasha birta mustaqbalka waxay la kulmaan cadaadis dhabarka ah.

"Qiimaha mustaqbalka ee macdanta birta waxay u badan tahay inuu gaaro heerar cusub muddada gaaban.Haddii aad eegto muddada dheer, faa'iidada birta birta ayaa hooseysa, isbeddelka warshadaha hantida ee hoos u dhaca isma beddelin, mustaqbalka birta ma laha shuruudo ay ku sii wataan kor u kaca xaaladda hoose ee aan la hubin."Zhao Yi ayaa yidhi.