Dhawaan, shirkadda Fitch ee la-talinta - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence waxay soo saartay warbixin saadaasha, 2023-2027, celceliska heerka kobaca sanadlaha ah ee wax soo saarka birta caalamiga ah ayaa la filayaa inuu noqdo 2.3%, shantii sano ee la soo dhaafay (2017- 2022), index wuxuu ahaa -0.7%.Tani waxay gacan ka geysan doontaa kor u qaadida wax soo saarka macdanta birta 372.8 milyan tan sanadka 2027 marka la barbar dhigo 2022, ayay tiri warbixintu.
Isla markaana xawliga wax-soo-saarka birta dunidu uu sii dardargelin doono.
Warbixintu waxay tilmaantay in mustaqbalka kororka sahayda birta ee caalamiga ah ay inta badan ka imaan doonto Brazil iyo Australia.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, Vale ayaa daaha ka qaaday qorshe fidinta firfircoon ee adduunka ka baxsan.Isla mar ahaantaana, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, FMG waxay sidoo kale qorsheynayaan inay maalgashadaan mashaariicda ballaarinta cusub.Tusaalooyinka waxaa ka mid ah biriijka Birta, oo FMG ay daba socoto, iyo Gudai Darri, oo ay daba socoto Rio Tinto.
Warbixintu waxa ay sheegtay in saddexda ilaa afarta sano ee soo socda uu kordhin doono wax soo saarka birta ee Shiinaha.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, Shiinuhu wuxuu isku dayaa inuu kordhiyo heerka isku-filnaanshaha oo si tartiib tartiib ah isaga gooyo ku tiirsanaanta miinooyinka Australia.Horumarinta firfircoon ee "qorshaha geesaha" ayaa kor u qaaday ballaarinta wax soo saarka shirkadaha macdanta Shiinaha, iyo sidoo kale dardargelinta horumarinta macdanta dibadda ee shirkadaha Shiinaha sida Baowu, sida mashruuca Xipo ee Shiinaha Baowu iyo Rio Tinto.Warbixintu waxay filaysaa in shirkadaha Shiinaha ee dhul weynaha ay mudnaanta siiyaan maalgashiga macdanta birta ee dibadda, sida macdan weyn ee Simandou.
Warbixinta ayaa sidoo kale saadaalisay in laga bilaabo 2027 ilaa 2032, celceliska heerka kobaca sanadlaha ee wax soo saarka birta caalamiga ah la filayo inuu noqdo -0.1%.Sida laga soo xigtay warbixinta, hoos u dhaca kobaca wax soo saarka ayaa laga yaabaa in ay sababto miinooyinka yar yar ee xira iyo hoos u dhaca qiimaha macdanta birta oo keenaya in macdan qodayaasha waaweyn ay yareeyaan maalgashiga mashaariicda cusub.
Sida laga soo xigtay warbixinta, laga bilaabo 2023 ilaa 2027, wax soo saarka birta ee Australia ayaa kori doona celcelis ahaan heerka kobaca sanadlaha ah 0.2%.Waxaa la sheegay in celcelis ahaan wax soo saarka birta ee Australia uu yahay $30 / ton, Galbeedka Afrika $40 / ton ~ $50 / ton, Shiinahana waa $90 / ton.Sababtoo ah Australiya waxay ku jirtaa meesha ugu hooseysa ee qalooca qiimaha macdanta birta ee caalamiga ah, waxaa la filayaa inay bixiso difaac caafimaad qaba oo ka dhan ah hoos u dhaca qiimaha macdanta birta ee caalamiga ah dhowrka sano ee soo socda.
Wax soo saarka macdanta birta ee Brazil ayaa lagu wadaa inuu dib u soo noolaado dhowrka sano ee soo socda.Sida laga soo xigtay warbixinta, tani waxay inta badan sabab u tahay hoos u dhaca wax soo saarka gobolka iyo kharashka hawlgalka, kayd mashruuc oo ku filan oo dheeraad ah, kheyraadka kheyraadka, iyo kordhinta caanka ah ee shirkadaha Shiinaha.Warbixintu waxay saadaalisay in laga bilaabo 2023 ilaa 2027, wax soo saarka birta Brazil uu kori doono celcelis ahaan heerka kobaca sanadlaha ah ee 3.4%, laga bilaabo 56.1 milyan tan ilaa 482.9 milyan oo tan sanadkii.Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mustaqbalka fog, heerka kobaca wax soo saarka birta ee Brazil ayaa hoos u dhici doona, celceliska heerka kobaca sanadlaha ah ayaa la filayaa inuu noqdo 1.2% laga bilaabo 2027 ilaa 2032, wax soo saarkuna wuxuu gaari doonaa 507.5 million ton / sannadkii 2032.
Intaa waxaa dheer, warbixinta ayaa sidoo kale shaaca ka qaaday in Vale's Serra Norte mine Gelado iron ore ay ballaarin doonto wax soo saarka sanadkan;Mashruuca N3 ayaa la filayaa inuu bilaabo 2024;Mashruuca S11D waxa uu horeba kor ugu qaaday wax-soo-saarka saddexda rubuc ee ugu horreeya sannad-maaliyadeedka, isaga oo gacan ka geysanaya in kor loo qaado wax-soo-saarka birta boqolkiiba 5.8 sannadkiiba ilaa 66.7m tan, iyada oo mashruuca la filayo in uu kordhiyo awoodda 30m tan sannadkii. .